As we all know, 2016 was considered by the industry as the outbreak of VR, but at the end of the year, all kinds of data show that the VR market has not broken out, but not as expected. What are the reasons? Is there any prospect for VR in the future?
I don't know if the industry still remembers that when Facebook and HTC released their own VR helmets, the industry has attributed the bottleneck of the VR outbreak to the hardware (mainly PC) that is compatible with the VR helmet, which does not meet the requirements of VR, but the final fact is proved at the hardware level. it's not true.
According to the latest statistics from the research firm Canalys, whether it is Sony's PSVR or the more expensive HTC Vive and Oculus Rift, the total shipments of VR headsets will be around 2 million this year. The mainstream PlayStaTIon VR shipments are 800,000; the HTC Vive is around 500,000; and the Oculus Rift is up to 400,000.
So what is the corresponding hardware shipment that meets the above VR helmet? PlayStaTIon 4 officially announced sales of 50 million, while the number of PCs supporting VR Ready is 15 million (only PCs using NVIDIA GeForce graphics cards), not counting PCs with AMD graphics cards, that is, supporting VR helmets. The most conservative estimate of the number of PCs is at least 15 million. According to this ratio, only 6% of the PC users who meet the VR hardware requirements have purchased the VR helmet. According to the survey data of the game distribution platform Steam, there are already About 10% of Steam users have their computer configuration meets VR requirements. That is to say, there are about 15 million user computers running VR content, but only 3% of them buy VR helmets. As for Sony's PSVR, its purchase rate is only 4%.
Also in the mobile VR market for smartphones, Google hopes to use DayDream to standardize the Android version of VR helmets, but the shipment of this device is only about 250,000 units, only half of what it had previously expected. Although Samsung has done a lot of promotion for Gear VR, the sales of this device will not exceed 2.3 million units this year, and these are negligible compared with the shipment of smartphones. From this point of view, the technical limitations (volume, weight, performance balance, refresh rate, etc.) behind the VR hardware device are probably the main reasons.
PC VR head display Oculus Rift
Here, perhaps the industry believes that hardware itself is the main reason that hinders VR outbreaks. In fact, the facts are far more than that. According to a recent survey conducted by VR Technology Media Upload and Perkins Coie, it is somewhat surprising. In the view of most respondents, the high price of hardware or the “niche attribute†of the VR market is not a major concern that hinders the popularity of VR in the consumer market. Instead, they listed “lack of attractive content, user experience issues, and cost†as the main obstacle to VR adoption in the next few years, while Steam VR, the first online VR application distribution platform, showed VR, VR only games. The average installed capacity and average game time are significantly behind, especially the average game time, which is basically 1/5 - 1/7 of other types of games, which seems to prove that VR content is not only scarce but not attractive ( Lack of stickiness to the user). So what is the cause of lack of content or lack of stickiness to users?
The main reason is that current VR developers (including games) can't make money. In this regard, Eerie Bear Games's Joe Radak recently wrote an article warning: If you are now developing VR games, it is very likely that you will lose your money.
Ladakh’s warning is worthy of vigilance. He is the developer of the puzzle game "Light Repair Team #4", which is one of the recommended games on HTC Vive, and gives a positive positive feedback on most of the gamers on Steam. Download him for $8 in revenue. However, Ladakh has lost $36,000 on this project so far. The main reason is that the current exclusive agreement restricts developers to one platform, can only develop games for this platform, which increases the cost of developers. Another point that cannot be ignored is the recognition of VR by the market and users. Still low, according to a recent study by Parks Associates, 63% of Americans are unaware of VR or even know nothing about it. Only about 6% of men and 2.5% of women are interested in buying VR helmets. In this case, even the best VR games may not make money. Since you can't make money, and let developers develop high-quality VR games or applications, VR is obviously stuck in the vicious circle of industry.
If the above is that the VR industry is subjectively hindering its own development in terms of hardware and software (applications), from an objective point of view, the rise of AR has also diluted the VR market to some extent.
The most typical example is Pokemon Go, which went live in the summer of 2016. The app has more than 500 million downloads, and the total walking distance of all players has exceeded 2.8 billion miles. According to the analysis company BI Intelligence reports. The total market value of AR and VR will reach $16.2 billion in 2020. The company believes that AR will have more revenue than VR.
The reason is that, first of all, in terms of interactivity and fun, AR can satisfy the user's experience, so that users can truly experience the virtual world in the real world, which enhances the user's interest. It also ensures the interaction between users and technology; secondly, in terms of social, AR does not separate users from the real world, that is, although virtual reality can bring more convenience to people's lives, people can Face-to-face communication in a virtual environment, but only to give the user an illusory world, allowing users to be alone in the same space, while AR is focused on interaction with the surrounding people, including the eyes and look of the other party. You can video chat with your friends, process documents, present content, and play the game while you see the real world.
In this regard, some analysts believe that VR provides a kind of “regressive†consumption, which can't last for a long time, people will feel bored and bored; AR provides a “top†consumption model—active and involved People can share and share the purchase experience with friends around them, and the space is open.
In summary, we believe that the main reason why the VR thunder and raindrops in 2016 is small is that VR itself (hardware and software, etc.) does not form a virtuous circle, and the related hardware (such as PC) that was not expected in the industry is not prepared. Ok, plus the impact of AR, which also makes us have to rethink how VR really has a considerable market space?
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