Since the beginning of this year, the recovery of the LED industry has caused the market to continue to pay attention. According to the statistics of the Shanghai Securities Journal, there are already 10 LED industry companies that have released the first half of the year's performance forecast. Although the revenue scale has increased significantly year-on-year, the profitability is not the same – the upstream and upstream companies are hard to increase profits, and the terminal lighting company's performance rebounds. obvious.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange reporter learned that the recovery of the LED industry has just started, and there will be a large room for growth in the next two to three years. At the same time, with the industry's off-season in June and July, the industry is expected to enter the peak season after August, and the industry's prosperity will pick up.
LED companies are different in warmth and warmth
On July 12, four LED industry companies, such as Ganzhao Optoelectronics (300102), Hongli Optoelectronics (300219) and Lehman Optoelectronics (300162), also released semi-annual results announcements.
Among them, the main chip products of the dry photo-electricity also suffered from the increase in revenue and not increased profits. The company's revenue in the first half of this year increased by 10% to 20%, while net profit fell 15% to 25%. The company's explanation is similar: due to the growth of LED industry demand, the company's product sales and operating income increased year-on-year, but due to the year-on-year decline in product prices, the overall net profit decreased year-on-year.
Hongli Optoelectronics, which is the mainstay of packaged products, saw its operating income increase by 20% to 30% in the first half of the year, while net profit decreased by 25% to 35%. Hongli Optoelectronics explained that the decline in net profit was due to strong demand in the LED lighting market during the reporting period, effectively releasing the company's production capacity, and operating income increased to a certain extent, but the product sales price decreased year-on-year and the gross profit margin decreased.
Ganzhao Optoelectronics and Hongli Optoelectronics reflect the common dilemma of upstream companies in the LED industry. In fact, this situation also highlights the logic of the LED industry recovery this year. According to the Shanghai Securities Journal reporter, the main reason for the recovery of the LED industry in this round is that the raw materials in the chip and packaging industries have declined, resulting in a decline in the price of LED lighting products, prompting more and more consumers to accept LED lighting. After the application demand is activated, It also stimulated the demand for middle and upstream products such as packages and chips. However, while the volume of shipments increased, the prices of products such as packaging and chips remained at a low level, resulting in an increase in revenue without gaining profits.
Industry downstream lighting products have taken the lead in achieving profitability. The results of the interim report released by Changfang Lighting (300301) showed that the company's net profit for the first half of the year increased by 1.8% to 27.3%. A careful analysis found that in the first half of this year, the net profit of 32 million to 40 million yuan, the second quarter of net profit contributed 21.68 million to 26.968 million yuan, a sequential increase of 110% -188%. Changfang Lighting explained that the increase in net profit was mainly due to the recovery of the LED industry, the demand for products continued to be strong, the output and sales of various products increased rapidly, and the sales revenue maintained rapid growth.
The industry will regain its upward trend in the third quarter
From the trend of the industry, after experiencing the crazy growth in May, the LED industry cooled slightly in June.
An analyst of China Merchants Securities told reporters that the industry's short-term cooling in June was mainly due to the off-season effect. The reason is that, first, the energy-saving subsidy policy was abolished, and some TV manufacturers entered the wait-and-see period in a short period; second, June was the off-season for TV consumption. Under the influence of two aspects, the LED backlight demand has a short-term correction.
However, the analyst believes that from the third quarter to the end of the year, the traditional peak season for the LED industry, the increase in consumer electronics and home appliance stocks in the second half of the year will effectively drive backlight demand, and lighting demand is expected to return to the upside after a short-term rest. "More critically, LED lighting has entered a period of rapid development of 3-5 years." He believes that as the price of LED lighting gradually increases, its penetration rate will gradually increase, and it is expected to rise from 5% in 2012 to 2015. 50%.
From the perspective of downstream applications, the proportion of lighting has exceeded the backlight to become the industry's largest driving force. The Essence Securities Research Report predicts that in the long run, in the next two or three years, Europe, the United States, Japan, China and other countries have eliminated the incandescent lamp plan, and the LED lighting market has broad prospects. Essence Securities predicts that the general lighting market will bring 400 billion market size, and the LED usage will be more than 10 times of the current demand. The LED industry will usher in a new development.
"From the perspective of industry trends, we judge that 2013 will be the first year of LED lighting applications. The industry trends are improving in the next two or three years," said a person from a listed company in Guangdong.
Industry will merge with M&A
Although the overall trend of the LED industry is warm, the practitioners are bitter and uneven. The performance in the first half of this year is an example of differentiation. In addition to the difficulty in increasing the income of the upstream and upstream companies, some companies also have “walking emptyâ€.
For Lehman Optoelectronics, which has packaging and LED lighting business, net profit for the first half of this year fell 20% to 30%. The company explained that “due to the expansion of new business and new fields, the investment period of human resources and various expenses is still large, and as the new industrial park is completed and put into operation, the operating expenses have increased year-on-year, resulting in a decrease in net profit compared with the same period of last year. ."
An industry analyst who did not want to be named said that due to the lack of production capacity of Lehman Optoelectronics in the first half of the year, it was not a good time to catch up with the industry recovery.
"In fact, after more than a year of bear market, it is estimated that half of the LED companies in the industry have not started production, and because small and medium-sized enterprises do not have scale advantages, product competitiveness is not strong, and it will be difficult to resume production in the future." People said. In his view, if all domestic LED companies start to resume production, the industry supply will remain in surplus. It is precisely because small and medium-sized enterprises have no cost advantage, which brings space for the growth of large-scale enterprises.
“It is expected that in the next few years, the industry will have a lot of opportunities for mergers and acquisitions,†the source said.
The aforementioned analysts who are not willing to be named said that based on the logic of lighting demand to drive market space, the order of benefits for LED industry companies will be from downstream demand, then to the midstream of the industry, and then to the upstream chip field. Among the specific companies, he believes that companies with economies of scale, such as Sunshine Lighting, will further increase their market share and the long-term prospects are more optimistic.
(This article is reproduced on the Internet. The texts and opinions expressed in this article have not been confirmed by this site, nor do they represent the position of Gaogong LED. Readers need to verify the relevant content by themselves.)
The Shanghai Stock Exchange reporter learned that the recovery of the LED industry has just started, and there will be a large room for growth in the next two to three years. At the same time, with the industry's off-season in June and July, the industry is expected to enter the peak season after August, and the industry's prosperity will pick up.
LED companies are different in warmth and warmth
On July 12, four LED industry companies, such as Ganzhao Optoelectronics (300102), Hongli Optoelectronics (300219) and Lehman Optoelectronics (300162), also released semi-annual results announcements.
Among them, the main chip products of the dry photo-electricity also suffered from the increase in revenue and not increased profits. The company's revenue in the first half of this year increased by 10% to 20%, while net profit fell 15% to 25%. The company's explanation is similar: due to the growth of LED industry demand, the company's product sales and operating income increased year-on-year, but due to the year-on-year decline in product prices, the overall net profit decreased year-on-year.
Hongli Optoelectronics, which is the mainstay of packaged products, saw its operating income increase by 20% to 30% in the first half of the year, while net profit decreased by 25% to 35%. Hongli Optoelectronics explained that the decline in net profit was due to strong demand in the LED lighting market during the reporting period, effectively releasing the company's production capacity, and operating income increased to a certain extent, but the product sales price decreased year-on-year and the gross profit margin decreased.
Ganzhao Optoelectronics and Hongli Optoelectronics reflect the common dilemma of upstream companies in the LED industry. In fact, this situation also highlights the logic of the LED industry recovery this year. According to the Shanghai Securities Journal reporter, the main reason for the recovery of the LED industry in this round is that the raw materials in the chip and packaging industries have declined, resulting in a decline in the price of LED lighting products, prompting more and more consumers to accept LED lighting. After the application demand is activated, It also stimulated the demand for middle and upstream products such as packages and chips. However, while the volume of shipments increased, the prices of products such as packaging and chips remained at a low level, resulting in an increase in revenue without gaining profits.
Industry downstream lighting products have taken the lead in achieving profitability. The results of the interim report released by Changfang Lighting (300301) showed that the company's net profit for the first half of the year increased by 1.8% to 27.3%. A careful analysis found that in the first half of this year, the net profit of 32 million to 40 million yuan, the second quarter of net profit contributed 21.68 million to 26.968 million yuan, a sequential increase of 110% -188%. Changfang Lighting explained that the increase in net profit was mainly due to the recovery of the LED industry, the demand for products continued to be strong, the output and sales of various products increased rapidly, and the sales revenue maintained rapid growth.
The industry will regain its upward trend in the third quarter
From the trend of the industry, after experiencing the crazy growth in May, the LED industry cooled slightly in June.
An analyst of China Merchants Securities told reporters that the industry's short-term cooling in June was mainly due to the off-season effect. The reason is that, first, the energy-saving subsidy policy was abolished, and some TV manufacturers entered the wait-and-see period in a short period; second, June was the off-season for TV consumption. Under the influence of two aspects, the LED backlight demand has a short-term correction.
However, the analyst believes that from the third quarter to the end of the year, the traditional peak season for the LED industry, the increase in consumer electronics and home appliance stocks in the second half of the year will effectively drive backlight demand, and lighting demand is expected to return to the upside after a short-term rest. "More critically, LED lighting has entered a period of rapid development of 3-5 years." He believes that as the price of LED lighting gradually increases, its penetration rate will gradually increase, and it is expected to rise from 5% in 2012 to 2015. 50%.
From the perspective of downstream applications, the proportion of lighting has exceeded the backlight to become the industry's largest driving force. The Essence Securities Research Report predicts that in the long run, in the next two or three years, Europe, the United States, Japan, China and other countries have eliminated the incandescent lamp plan, and the LED lighting market has broad prospects. Essence Securities predicts that the general lighting market will bring 400 billion market size, and the LED usage will be more than 10 times of the current demand. The LED industry will usher in a new development.
"From the perspective of industry trends, we judge that 2013 will be the first year of LED lighting applications. The industry trends are improving in the next two or three years," said a person from a listed company in Guangdong.
Industry will merge with M&A
Although the overall trend of the LED industry is warm, the practitioners are bitter and uneven. The performance in the first half of this year is an example of differentiation. In addition to the difficulty in increasing the income of the upstream and upstream companies, some companies also have “walking emptyâ€.
For Lehman Optoelectronics, which has packaging and LED lighting business, net profit for the first half of this year fell 20% to 30%. The company explained that “due to the expansion of new business and new fields, the investment period of human resources and various expenses is still large, and as the new industrial park is completed and put into operation, the operating expenses have increased year-on-year, resulting in a decrease in net profit compared with the same period of last year. ."
An industry analyst who did not want to be named said that due to the lack of production capacity of Lehman Optoelectronics in the first half of the year, it was not a good time to catch up with the industry recovery.
"In fact, after more than a year of bear market, it is estimated that half of the LED companies in the industry have not started production, and because small and medium-sized enterprises do not have scale advantages, product competitiveness is not strong, and it will be difficult to resume production in the future." People said. In his view, if all domestic LED companies start to resume production, the industry supply will remain in surplus. It is precisely because small and medium-sized enterprises have no cost advantage, which brings space for the growth of large-scale enterprises.
“It is expected that in the next few years, the industry will have a lot of opportunities for mergers and acquisitions,†the source said.
The aforementioned analysts who are not willing to be named said that based on the logic of lighting demand to drive market space, the order of benefits for LED industry companies will be from downstream demand, then to the midstream of the industry, and then to the upstream chip field. Among the specific companies, he believes that companies with economies of scale, such as Sunshine Lighting, will further increase their market share and the long-term prospects are more optimistic.
(This article is reproduced on the Internet. The texts and opinions expressed in this article have not been confirmed by this site, nor do they represent the position of Gaogong LED. Readers need to verify the relevant content by themselves.)
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