Every year, BP will launch an annual report that focuses on the market. The latest annual report predicts that auto-driving electric vehicles and sharing travel will reduce the global transportation industry's oil consumption. However, at the same time, the increase in demand from China and India will boost the overall energy demand.
Unlike previous years, the latest report expands the forecast period by 5 to 2040, and pays more attention to changes in energy demand in different industries and regions. To sum up, in the case of gradual transition (evolving transition), that is, assuming that the government policies, technologies, and social preferences of various countries are changing at a pace similar to the past, there are several important points to note.
Improved energy efficiency
First of all, China and India will boost global energy demand by more than one-third. The report believes that under the drive of China and India, the two major economies, the overall demand for global energy will continue to grow, by 1/3 in 2040, that is, an annual increase of 1.3 percentage points. In the two major driving forces of China and India, India will be the main source of growth, and China's demand for oil will slow down in the 2030s.
At the same time, we can also see that the world is looking forward to "small input and large output", that is, to increase energy efficiency. For example, the EU’s gross domestic product level will triple by 1975 by 2040, but its energy demand will remain at almost the same level as in the same year. Overall, the report predicts that by 2040, global GDP will more than double, but energy consumption will increase by only 35%.
Second, by 2040, the global energy composition will change dramatically. Oil, natural gas, coal and non-fossil energy each account for about 25%. Among them, oil and gas account for more than half of energy; natural gas demand grows strongly and exceeds coal to become the second largest energy source; demand for renewable energy will be five times that of today, accounting for 40% of the total increase, and the proportion of energy in the energy structure will be The current 4% has grown to 14%.
This year's report also focuses on the trend of electric cars. It is expected that the proportion of electric vehicles will increase to 15%, and in terms of usage habits, the frequency of use of electric vehicles will also increase significantly, accounting for 30% of the mileage.
The report predicts that by 2035, there will be nearly 190 million electric vehicles in the world, which will greatly exceed the estimated 100 million units in the previous year, and will increase to about 320 million units by 2040. In other words, compared to the current 3 million units, it will increase by more than 100 times, due to the substantial growth of hybrid vehicles and the dramatic increase in the sales of electric vehicles during the period from 2035 to 2040. At the same time, the number of all automobiles will also increase by 15% to 2 billion.
Spencer Dale, chief economist at BP, said that the large number of electric vehicles will radically change the current market structure. In this year’s report, it is assumed that the extreme situation is that from 2040 onwards, With global sales banned, oil demand will decline by 10 million barrels per day.
Sharing self-driving electric cars
The report also proposes a trend that will change the use of energy to a large extent. That is, the combination of shared travel and autonomous driving technology will replace people’s traditional private car-based travel methods in the future.
“We will see that autonomous vehicles are used in the shared market, which means that they will be used more frequently. Moreover, due to the lower cost of electric vehicles, it will become the main force for sharing self-driving cars, and therefore, electric vehicles. The penetration will have the greatest impact on oil demand." Dell said the report predicts that electric vehicles will be driven 2.5 times faster than traditional fuel vehicles in future travel modes.
The report also predicts that by the beginning of the 20th century, that is, a few years later, autonomous driving technology will become a universally available technology, but due to its high price when initially put into use, a more reasonable scenario is to buy from institutions. And put in the market to provide shared travel services.
"We anticipate that by the 2030s we will see a huge increase in the sharing of self-driving cars. Once there is no need to pay for the drivers, the cost of such trips will drop by 40 to 50%," Dell said.
According to the report, global oil demand will peak at the end of the 2030s to a level of 110 million barrels per day, but in the previous report, no peak forecast was made. In terms of industry, although transportation is still the industry with the largest demand for oil, BP, Shell, and TOTAL are expected to see greater demand growth in the petrochemical industry in the coming decades. The main growth point is plastics manufacturing. However, similar to electric vehicles, in the plastics industry, if the consumption restrictions on the plastic bags and plastic packaging industry, will also reduce the oil demand of the industry by about 200 million barrels / day.
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