Is it a gambling or a value investment? So many things happening in Dehao Runda (002005.SZ) have not been conclusive.
From the introduction of strategic investor Jianlongda Optoelectronics to develop small household appliances and LED dual-main business, to launch the Anhui Wuhu LED industrial base with an investment of 4.1 billion yuan, Dehao Runda has frequently operated, and its share price has risen more than 8 in 15 months. Times.
What happened behind this is a new round of LED craze, which also attracted people like "Half-way" who like Dehao Runda to join.
The survey found that the LED industry chain cut by Dehao Runda is still at the low end, and the high-end areas that are trying to enter are also facing technical and financial pressures. With the development and integration of the LED industry, this capital feast from LED will probably end with LED.
Skyrocketing and equity transfer
From the bottom of October 2008, Dehao Runda's share price has climbed all the way, and has risen more than 8 times in December last year. It is known as one of the most stocks in the A-share market last year.
All of this stems from the active transformation of Dehao Runda. The company, which is the second largest in the world and the largest in the country, transferred shares to strategic investor Guangdong Jianlongda Optoelectronics Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Jianlongda) in batches in the middle and late March last year to implement small household appliances. And LED dual main business. As of the third quarter of last year, Jianlongda held more than 36 million shares of Dehao Runda, accounting for 11.33% of the shares, becoming its second largest shareholder.
In the same month, Dehao Runda also issued relevant announcements several times in a row. Its stock price rose by about 74.01%, 49.34% and 57.85% in the three months (February to April).
From May to September of that year, Dehao Runda's share price entered a consolidation period. Subsequently, on October 14, Dehao Runda announced that it will implement a private placement, raising 1.26 billion yuan to invest in the LED industry base in Wuhu, Anhui. On November 11, Dehao Runda announced that it will establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in Yangzhou, Jiangsu Province, mainly to operate MOCVD (Metal Organic Source Chemical Vapor Deposition) equipment project to support the Wuhu project.
In October and November, Dehao Runda issued several announcements on relevant stock issuance, asset acquisition and foreign investment.
Defei Runda’s Dongshou Deng Fei said in an interview with this newspaper that the two projects in Wuhu and Yangzhou are much more advanced than the equipment and technology of Jianlongda, and the production capacity and technological level must be on a higher level.
Dehao Runda said that this move will further realize the company's industrial layout in the LED industry. Continuing this idea, Dehao Runda invested in the capital of Shenzhen Science and Technology Co., Ltd., Enping Jianlong Circuit Board Co., Ltd. and Shenzhen Ruituo Display Technology Co., Ltd. respectively.
The direct result of a series of operations is that the share price of Dehao Runda continued to rise until it reached 17.55 yuan in December last year, and it has remained at this high level.
In the same month, Yuan Haoran, a small household appliance industry analyst of CIC Securities, wrote a research report that the total sales of Dehao Runda LED business in 2010 was over 1 billion yuan, the gross profit margin was over 40%, and the net profit margin was over 26%. After the shareholders' equity, it can contribute a net profit of about 260 million yuan. Shenyin Wanguo’s research report also believes that the LED business of Dehao Runda’s acquisition has a gross margin of over 40% and a net profit margin of approximately 20%.
Deng Fei said that the relevant data is judged by brokerage analysts based on industry experience, and Dehao Runda did not provide relevant financial data.
From the perspective of Jian Lunda, such a high profit rate does not seem to be realistic. A former management who left the company from Jian Lunda recently said with certainty: "40% of gross profit margin and 20% of net profit margin are impossible."
Order and company status
The person who has been engaged in the LED industry for many years told this newspaper that the packaging and application of Jianlongda is in the downstream of the industry. When the competition in the industry is not intense in the early years, the gross profit margin can reach more than 20%, but due to the low barriers to entry, the current industry It has entered the stage of small profits but quick turnover, with a gross profit margin of 5% to 15% and a net profit margin of 5% or less.
If you can sell more, you can also accumulate less. The same research report from CIC Securities said that Dehao Runda LED field company currently has about 300 million yuan of purchase orders from Yangzhou City. The Wuhu Municipal Government has listed the company as the first supplier. This year, there may be about 300 million yuan of purchases. the amount.
Deng Fei said that these are all intentional cooperation, and ultimately they must be determined through the bidding process.
At the original Jianlongda factory in Taishan, which was renamed Jianlong, an employee said that the factory with a maximum of 2,000 people currently has only about 1,000 workers. "It’s busy to say busy, not busy or busy. In the past, it should be in the peak season. Other LED factories are rushing to work.†The employee attributed the reason to the fact that the company has just become a listed company and “needs a preparation periodâ€.
For a large-scale order in Yangzhou and Wuhu, a manager of the Jianlongda Administration Department said that he did not know about this. In fact, most of the factories that have been renamed Jianlong by Jianlongda are well-documented orders, which are from the listed company Dehao Runda.
According to the announcement of Dehao Runda in November last year, the company and related parties Guangdong Jianlongda and Enping Jianlong respectively reached a purchase agreement of raw materials of 51 million yuan and 8 million yuan, and a sales agreement for LED products of 43 million yuan and 1 million yuan. The total amount of related party transactions was 103 million yuan.
This part of the order may be preparing for the Wuhu project. In October last year, Dehao Runda announced a private placement plan and decided to raise 1.526 billion yuan, all of which were used to build LED industrialization projects in Wuhu. The project is expected to have a total investment of 4.1 billion yuan, mainly including three sub-projects of chip, package and application, covering the upper, middle and lower reaches of the industry.
The program predicts that during the 10-year operation period, the average annual sales revenue will be approximately 1.8 billion yuan, with an average annual net profit of more than 200 million yuan.
Dehao Runda is trying to shake up a huge market, but the capital needs of billions of dollars are equally huge. According to the third quarter of last year, the total assets of Dehao Runda were only over 200 million yuan.
Capital and industry prospects
In the Wuhu project, Dehao Runda plans to raise more than 1.5 billion yuan through private placement. In addition to Dehao Runda's controlling shareholder Dehao Electric itself plans to subscribe for 56 million shares for 534 million yuan, it also plans to introduce three state-owned enterprises in Wuhu as strategic investors.
According to the relevant issuance plan, Dehao Electric has signed an agreement with Wuhu City Minjiang Construction Investment Co., Ltd., which entrusts the bank to provide Dehao Electric with loans for the funds required to subscribe for shares. In the past year and this year when the credit policy has changed, whether the loan related to Dehao Runda will change, it is still unclear.
A person involved in the development of the issuance plan revealed that the program is still in the process of application and has not been formally approved. However, he also believes that "the price of the secondary market after the program has come out has positively reflected the profits brought by the investment project, which is also enjoyed by the company management."
However, returning to the Wuhu project itself, it has already faced fierce competition before it was born. Shortly after the foundation of the Dehao Runda Wuhu project, Sanan Optoelectronics (600703.SH) announced that it plans to invest about 12 billion yuan to build an LED industrialization base in Wuhu City, engaged in the research and development of LED epitaxial wafers, chips and packaging, and application products. And manufacturing. The investment project is converging with DHL Runda and the scale is even larger.
The country's determination to promote energy-saving emission reduction and the trend of low-carbon economy have made many LED companies see hope and have squandered.
Wang Dongming, the director and deputy general manager of Dehao Runda, once said that the goal set by Dehao Runda is largely dependent on the Ministry of Science and Technology's “10 Cities and Miles†program, which promotes LED lighting in 21 cities across the country. It is said that this is a market of 500 billion yuan, and Dehao Runda can only take 5%.
However, the experience of Guangxi Jianlongwei, who claimed to be the same as Jianlong Group of Jianlongda, may provide some reference for Dehao Runda. This company, once considered to be owned by Dehao Runda, participated in the LED product related testing in Nanning, Guangxi, at the end of 2008. Subsequently, the relevant stocks and other websites broke the news that the company will conduct a “BOT†“contract resource management†project with the Nanning Municipal Government, that is, Jianlongwei will provide 10,000 LED street lights to the government, saving within a certain period of time. The electricity bill is owned by Jian Longwei.
The newspaper contacted the Lighting Management Office of the Municipal Administration of Nanning, and an employee who participated in the organization's testing activities said that there was no agreement with Jianlongwei and there was no impression on Jianlongwei because "the enterprises that participated in the test at that time had More than a dozen, many companies from Guangdong are very strong."
Behind the seemingly bright future of LEDs is the dramatic expansion and fierce competition in the entire industry. According to the statistics and measurement of the optoelectronic device branch of China Optical Optoelectronics Industry Association, there are more than 2,000 LED companies in the country, among which there are more than 40 research and production units engaged in epitaxial wafer growth and chip manufacturing, and about 600 device packaging companies. There are about 100 packaging companies of a certain size.
The above-mentioned former Jianlongda management person said that similar to the development of the color TV industry in China, the LED industry must undergo the process of market expansion, capacity expansion, and overcapacity, which will eventually leave only a few industry leaders. For Dehao Runda, this thrilling must be completed in this wave.
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